The business process outsourcing (BPO) sector is worried that a further appreciation of the peso past the P42-level due to the unchecked influx of foreign exchange inflows into the country will effectively delay expansion plans in the next six months.
Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) chair Sergio Ortiz-Luis said the BPOs, a $9-billion industry solely dependent on foreign exchange earnings, will have to seriously reassess business plans if the peso breaches P40 vis-à-vis the US dollar. At the moment the exchange rate is at the P42.50 range, an appreciation of almost six percent from the same period last year.
During consultations with the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPAP) and other exporters, Ortiz who is also president of the Exporters Confederation of the Philippines said the strong peso will erode the BPOs’ competitive advantage in the medium term. “They can still live lower than P42:$1 but a lot of the BPO expansion will be put on hold,” he warned.
A study prepared by PCCI showed that the BPOs labor arbitrage, which is a key driver for the growth of the local BPOs, will decline and that the Philippines will no longer be considered an attractive site if the peso appreciates more or by another three percent.
“Companies affected by the peso appreciation scaled back their expansion plans or shelved them (while) a smaller number have moved operations to lower-cost locations in the Philippines or other countries,” according to the paper.
“More than half indicated that peso appreciation against the US dollar has had no impact or only modest impact on their business however they are concerned about the implications of further strengthening of the peso.”
An industry survey, also conducted by PCCI, showed that the BPOs’ competitive advantage will be “severely impacted” at an exchange rate below P37:$1. A small percentage of the sector indicated that business will lose its competitive edge with the peso ranging between P37 to P42.
Since currency fluctuations are risk that all foreign exchange-dependent industries are prepared for, the BPOs have contractual provisions that protect them in case of “severe” exchange rate fluctuations. “Most have already exercises these provisions on a case-to-case basis,” said PCCI.
To cope with the current peso-dollar volatile environment, BPOs could either reduce overhead costs or increase billing rates as well enhance operation efficiency to save on expenses.
The BPAP’s medium-term road map expects the IT-BPO revenues to reach $25 billion in 2016, which means sustained 20 percent growth starting this year.
The central bank, which monitors all foreign exchange inflows into the country, said earlier that the continued BPO growth would fuel surpluses in the services account, part of the components of the balance of payments statistics.
Source:http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/330527/bpos-worried-over-peso-appreciation

